When I met Afghan president Dr. Najibullah in April 1989, he was nervous; no one knew the quandary Kabul was in better than him. I remember Dr. Najib saying Pakistan and China had a role in stabilizing his country. Neither came to his aid.
How things have changed!
Many American and European analysts disapprove of the perceived fact that China is getting a free ride in Afghanistan; China does not contribute combat troops, but has won the bid for developing the Aynak copper mine in Afghanistan’s Logar province. It is one of the world’s largest copper deposits, and China stands to benefit a great deal from the project when the mine is up and running. When President Barack Obama visits China next month he is expected to discuss the Afghanistan issue with his counterpart and negotiate rules of engagement with Beijing.
Chinese “developmental diplomacy” is not unique to Afghanistan. A cursory review of how China interacts with African countries demonstrates that Beijing is willing to participate in the region’s reconstruction and even contribute to the peace building efforts of the UN, but refuses to partake in warfare.
Western analyses and pleas with China to get involved in the Afghan quagmire have two common themes: First, China is benefitting from a $3.5 billion contract without the price of committing combat troops, and secondly, China has immense influence on Pakistan and it can coerce Pakistan to “do more.” Both of these arguments are problematic to say the least.
China’s relatively small border with Afghanistan (they are joined along a sliver of 46 miles of mountainous land) was once part of the Silk Road route. The British and Russians drew the Wakhan Corridor on a map at the end of the 19th century to be a buffer zone between British India to the south and Russian Turkestan to the north. Once again, this narrow Wakhan Corridor has the potential to become a pathway of commerce between China and Central Asia and beyond.
With this historical perspective, China’s recent bidding victory does not seem suspicious. This $3.5 Billion investment is the largest foreign direct investment in Afghanistan’s history. I am told that additional Chinese investments are underway. Western analysts agree that these investments have the potential to spark Afghanistan’s economy, but argue the Chinese are piggy-backing on International Security Assistance Force’s (ISAF) stabilization effort. The frequently-posed question remains: If China is genuinely interested in Afghanistan’s stability, why the reluctance to contribute combat troops?
Over last few years, China has emerged as the world’s main exporter to Afghanistan. Chinese companies ZTE and Huawei deployed a telecommunications network providing over 200,000 phone and high speed internet lines to Afghanistan. China also led the irrigation project in Parwar province, as well as the reconstruction of the public hospitals in Kabul and Kandahar.
Reports from Beijing indicate that there are plans to build an electrical plant worth about $500 million, in addition to the deployment of tracks for a railway from Tajikistan to Pakistan.
Once fully operational, Aynak mines will employ nearly 10,000 Afghans and pay $400 million in annual royalties to the Afghan government, which is 50% of Afghanistan’s current yearly budget.
Chinese think tanks are now more vociferous than ever in calling for American troops’ withdrawal and the establishment of a national reconciliation program that will bring the Taliban into the fold of mainstream politics. In addition, China wants an international peacekeeping mission after the U.S. withdrawal. They argue that with the aid of international peacekeepers, Afghanistan’s government and its security forces will be able to exercise effective control over domestic unrest and maintain peace and security. China can potentially provide “boots” for a peacekeeping mission.
China seems ready to play a concrete role in Afghanistan now and it will most likely maneuver to seize a substantial portion of Afghanistan’s natural resources, and they are likely to be successful. Afghanistan has large energy and mineral resources and a potential route to the global market, but in my opinion this is not enough for risk-adverse China to fully engage. China’s sudden desire to involve herself with Afghanistan reflects recognition of the geographic importance of her neighbor; China does not want the U.S. to play in her backyard for too long.
China vehemently opposed the Soviet Union’s presence in Afghanistan but Beijing has been more tactful in opposing the U.S. presence. China’s ruling elite understood that Afghanistan would turn into a sticky situation, and they wanted time to take its course. It seems “time” is just around the corner.
I have this nagging question in the back of my head: Will China, the emerging superpower, face the same outcome as other empires that have crossed path in Afghanistan? Will the skeletons and memories of the Chinese be added to those already left behind in the barren mountains of Afghanistan?
